Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28fccb7054661ed47b75135afd5a6e5871591ba114584438ec71c32dfc9e64e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,247 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd829…95f9backed Yes | 6c | 4,154$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 10c | 2,955$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.46 | 126 | 13.5%17 W · 109 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 1,621$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 23c | 1,336$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.64 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 1,284$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 16c | 631.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 40c | 434.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.66 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked No | 61c | 279.38$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 60c | 268.18$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 33c | 243.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…53ebbacked No | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 78c | 226.74$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 31c | 189.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 67c | 186$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 16c | 181.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 181.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 31c | 180.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Yes | 32c | 123.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked No | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 41c | 81.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 62c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 30c | 39.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…472ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 59c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +7.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…37fabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?No won
- Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.