Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293a4777ed73526e1934e74dd00b67a7db67e113af3a85a1108456a2a18f1011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 3,867$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 41c | 1,300$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 50c | 996.56$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 59c | 816.66$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.83 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 52c | 626.92$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.92 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 621.84$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.07 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 257.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 62c | 250.19$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 41c | 169.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 80.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 78.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 49.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 48.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 40c | 46.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 41c | 42.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 41c | 29.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…b190backed Over | 58c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.