Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebd5f18258c82429b1c68b6bdd75c24ade84238001d9c01c3cc08825af870d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 6,215$3,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 40c | 3,145$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.21 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,355$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 63c | 816$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.92 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Over | 37c | 315.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 229.39$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 62c | 177.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 62c | 138.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 35c | 134.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 38c | 115.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 63c | 102.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 36c | 82.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed Under | 63c | 81.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Under | 63c | 81.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Under | 63c | 77.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Under | 63c | 74.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Under | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 64c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 63c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.