Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. California-San Diego Tritons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295bf52b5b2d1e6d045a1ab84d1dbff744a84c8f83932bb4bab1d67cb7812069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California-San Diego Tritonsof Cal Poly Mustangs, California-San Diego Tritons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 2,341$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.35 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 27c | 2,058$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.32 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 1,668$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.78 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed California-San Diego Tritons | 76c | 901.99$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 1c | 870.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California-San Diego Tritons | 72c | 805.93$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.02 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 19c | 718.02$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed California-San Diego Tritons | 73c | 618.69$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 77c | 528.12$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked California-San Diego Tritons | 73c | 381.35$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 73c | 370.83$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 351$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 28c | 297.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…bba6backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 198.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…0126backed California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 198.65$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed California-San Diego Tritons | 72c | 198.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 190.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 134.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed California-San Diego Tritons | 75c | 116.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed California-San Diego Tritons | 77c | 106.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 28c | 99.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 27c | 99.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 167 | 21%35 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 87.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 74.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…8276backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 33c | 73.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 28c | 70.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…2784backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 65.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 59.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 43.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 75c | 39.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed California-San Diego Tritons | 75c | 39.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 299 | 54.2%162 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 73c | 34.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed California-San Diego Tritons | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed California-San Diego Tritons | 73c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed California-San Diego Tritons | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. California-San Diego Tritonsthis page
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. California-San Diego Tritons: O/U 162.5Under won
- Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-6.5)California-San Diego Tritons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.