South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2980a76092260d4e0f83c344ba82e03e519f2a5eef9e058da806b7c04040b7c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 908.71$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.06 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…26efbacked Over | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 65c | 499.51$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.83 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 30c | 463.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 17c | 330$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 16c | 251.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 69c | 214.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 24c | 143.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 16c | 108.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 69c | 104.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 71c | 100.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…1d36backed Over | 74c | 56.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 55.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 52.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Over | 78c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 74c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 1.5this page
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 2.5Over won
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 3.5Over won
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)Independiente del Valle won
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-2.5)Independiente del Valle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.