South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21e63197e2c85aff1def4654ee3fe6457d3c18a0b4b86b669200a967eb89c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,070$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 54c | 923.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.78 | 117 | 17.9%21 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 19c | 500.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.26 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…19aabacked Over | 47c | 368.82$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 47c | 364.59$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 73c | 360.24$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 35c | 321.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Under | 19c | 263.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 18c | 252$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.64 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 202.79$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 202.02$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 46c | 199.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Over | 36c | 131$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…bf7bbacked Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 64c | 85.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 17c | 82.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 74.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d95…fe91backed Under | 55c | 71.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 56c | 70.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…e00fbacked Over | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 19c | 52.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…8380backed Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 53c | 44.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 64c | 32.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Over | 46c | 31.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…b981backed Over | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 54c | 28.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76d…cbcbbacked Under | 71c | 25.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 53c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 4.5this page
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 2.5Over won
- Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)Independiente del Valle won
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-2.5)Independiente del Valle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.