Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29aab76947920c42344f443f2f15c7189aba39038ca32735748d9738676242ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 37c | 35,000$12,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,950 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 63c | 30,000$18,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,100 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 54c | 6,836$3,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.1 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 55c | 6,153$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.04 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 41c | 2,869$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.62 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 63c | 2,432$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.74 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 44c | 2,290$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 42c | 2,143$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed No | 60c | 794.37$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.11 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 43c | 699$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.54 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 659.25$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 30c | 570.09$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 59c | 427.81$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 57c | 420.15$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.66 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 57c | 415.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.88 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 366$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 56c | 323.97$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 57c | 322.93$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed No | 59c | 318.64$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 32c | 301.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 65c | 301.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 42c | 291.48$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 50c | 262$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…230fbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 43c | 131$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 57c | 110.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 41c | 101.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 43c | 71.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 59c | 61.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 41c | 61.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 25c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 44c | 41.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…4812backed Yes | 44c | 34.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…105dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 57c | 27.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-09-28?No won
- Will SC Freiburg vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.