Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcdf7dc556f764dca25c8cad01679fe45d728c830781cf410a3d44b743ea625c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 67c | 1,699$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.36 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 34c | 983.5$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.39 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 944.72$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 35c | 700.25$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.92 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 32c | 616.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 30c | 553.82$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 70c | 514.44$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 74c | 220.71$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 69c | 217$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 68c | 143.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 139$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 18c | 111.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…1f96backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…7ee3backed Yes | 35c | 89.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 31c | 63.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…105dbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.