Euroleague · resolved market
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. FC Bayern Munchen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b5754d10726447d8dbdcaa3cf8688f680873cba3956e0bc5b3b969dfd087e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Munchenof Hapoel Tel Aviv, FC Bayern Munchen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 3c | 16,082$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.74 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 19c | 1,251$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed FC Bayern Munchen | 18c | 1,000$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.19 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 30c | 900$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…4dbebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv | 22c | 892.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 46c | 869$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.17 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…76cabacked Hapoel Tel Aviv | 42c | 818.22$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.64 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…f3f6backed FC Bayern Munchen | 15c | 660.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +560.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…d03dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 18c | 645$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 71c | 629$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.98 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 63c | 621.87$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.21 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed FC Bayern Munchen | 64c | 518$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…7487backed FC Bayern Munchen | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 18c | 272.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…653cbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv | 24c | 224$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed FC Bayern Munchen | 27c | 221.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 21c | 147.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…6058backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 50c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed FC Bayern Munchen | 18c | 128$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 24cpaid | +350.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed FC Bayern Munchen | 19c | 120.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.91 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC Bayern Munchen | 75c | 120.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed FC Bayern Munchen | 18c | 91.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed FC Bayern Munchen | 21c | 87.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 30c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed FC Bayern Munchen | 19c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed FC Bayern Munchen | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed FC Bayern Munchen | 18c | 68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 52c | 63.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed FC Bayern Munchen | 43c | 49.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv | 57c | 47.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…ea49backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…da09backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Hapoel Tel Aviv | 78c | 16.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed FC Bayern Munchen | 77c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.