Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b58125de2daad82b30d2f19a179deda69a9a9fd394b011d065df504164455b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 29c | 996.48$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.07 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 26c | 928.82$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 11c | 918.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 59c | 595.13$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.93 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 3c | 548.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 474.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 35c | 299.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.41 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 289.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 59c | 273.9$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 205.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 78c | 197.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.37 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 62c | 164.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 18c | 156$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 29c | 146.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 136.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 133.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 75c | 132.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 34c | 121.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 44c | 120.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 63c | 120.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 106.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 13c | 106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 37c | 99.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 51c | 92.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 89.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 55c | 88.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 49c | 81.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 79.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 51c | 71.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 46c | 70.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 59c | 59.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 36c | 57.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 53.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 53c | 53.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 63c | 49.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 63c | 49.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 49.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 42.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 77c | 39.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 73c | 27.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 67c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 18.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6555backed Yes | 64c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 79c | 14.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.