South American Leagues · resolved market

CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29bd91eb00b9ebaf5c1d93ada993828f31f336614ff8843bfbc6b138ec528868

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,725

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,904 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under	62c	2,845$1,764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080.74	1,290	42.8%552 W · 738 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc418…5e1ebacked Over	36c	1,240$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.8	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	34c	1,144$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.99	517	49.9%258 W · 259 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over	46c	1,100$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+8.1wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2dc…b624backed Over	32c	999.99$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	995.52$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.91	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	44c	666.1$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.08	191	35.1%67 W · 124 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Over	66c	614.08$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.29	50	70%35 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over	66c	610.02$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.62	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-3.3wins	-0.41per pick	66cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1b3d…7de0backed Under	56c	520.79$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.62	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	22c	413.72$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.49	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Over	47c	310$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.8	31	67.7%21 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	70cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over	45c	295$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.75	489	22.9%112 W · 377 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41c1…9c76backed Over	50c	260$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde19…e90dbacked Under	75c	254.44$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.33	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea5…b5e6backed Over	68c	215.78$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.73	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under	32c	179.99$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.39	551	55%303 W · 248 L	+13.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fb…36cdbacked Over	57c	171.9$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.4	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	34c	168.88$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.47	3,405	51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x589d…b958backed Under	70c	139.4$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.16	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec9…b76bbacked Over	47c	126.31$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.27	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Over	47c	120.21$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	63	42.9%27 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x550d…f1ffbacked Under	68c	100.96$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	109	64.2%70 W · 39 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over	49c	99.8$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.46	93	44.1%41 W · 52 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	45c	99.64$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.84	836	42.9%359 W · 477 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under	51c	95.31$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.78	104	65.4%68 W · 36 L	+6.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a95…23cfbacked Over	29c	92.21$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.74	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	52c	89.67$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.63	336	58.3%196 W · 140 L	+32.4wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3945…2ef2backed Over	57c	80$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed Over	67c	73.79$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.44	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	852	20.7%176 W · 676 L	-85.2wins	-0.10per pick	31cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cd2…0820backed Under	33c	35.16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.56	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	34c	33.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.01	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4359…1260backed Over	49c	31.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Over	52c	30.49$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	246	54.9%135 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1726…6c90backed Over	68c	28.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+48.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8de7…61c0backed Over	56c	27.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under	48c	27.52$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.31	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Over	66c	26.45$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under	56c	25.31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.14	200	59.5%119 W · 81 L	+11.0wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Under	62c	23.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	48c	23.25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.09	1,355	49.7%674 W · 681 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	48c	23.25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.09	1,651	50.6%836 W · 815 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea77…686ebacked Over	68c	21.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	67cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38a5…37a5backed Over	68c	21.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	61	59%36 W · 25 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	68cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf9…1646backed Over	66c	19.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 1.5this page
CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5Under won
CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 3.5Under won
CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)Independiente del Valle won
Spread: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)Independiente del Valle won
Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)CA Rosario Central won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event