South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f643d33b76e7b9bc3251f9bc49bfe5ea66743a3e5b5ddb17dbe7de12c0ced64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 25c | 999.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 540.61$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 62c | 195.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 183.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 58c | 179.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 42c | 160.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 38c | 149.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 9c | 145.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…b76bbacked Over | 38c | 144.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 77c | 129.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 77c | 128.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…33efbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 75c | 93.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 75c | 93.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 75c | 93.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 37c | 71.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…85aebacked Under | 63c | 52.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 40c | 48.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Over | 39c | 46.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 64c | 44.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…48f3backed Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 34.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…c0ddbacked Under | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7eb…a668backed Under | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)Independiente del Valle won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)Independiente del Valle won
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)CA Rosario Central won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.