Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cb7942cc8e713b9ffbd3267cfee3e2bd1ff390574981b1ff5a79b8413d886f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 3c | 1,951$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 500.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 5c | 328.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 6c | 264.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…5d9fbacked No | 7c | 223.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 24c | 195.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 193.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 169.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 14c | 152.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 45c | 141.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 139.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 80c | 130.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 130.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 15c | 128.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 55c | 94.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 44c | 94.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 46c | 60.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 54c | 55.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 61c | 41.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 45c | 41.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 40.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 49c | 38.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4efbbacked No | 37c | 34.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked Yes | 73c | 30.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 78c | 30.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…88dbbacked Yes | 66c | 29.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed Yes | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked No | 43c | 26.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed Yes | 79c | 24.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…f6e1backed Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 63c | 15.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.