Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29e8cb401a03ee19ad7ced8ee5e5304c50df2944107811bc76e66900368178e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 4,413$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,408.49 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…5453backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…f009backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…f105backed Yes | 34c | 584.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.73 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…4475backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 66c | 318.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 1,044 | 43.7%456 W · 588 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 66c | 315.77$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.31 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 299.75$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 66c | 167$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 45c | 148.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked No | 20c | 101.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 40%72 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 300 | 40.3%121 W · 179 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…22b8backed Yes | 20c | 88.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 36c | 84.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 432 | 46.8%202 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 79c | 81.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…0736backed Yes | 38c | 78.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 315 | 43.5%137 W · 178 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 17c | 72.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 67c | 46.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 508 | 33.3%169 W · 339 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 91 | 74.7%68 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | +25.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8da…4996backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime?this page
- Nigeria leading at halftime?No won
- Portugal leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.