Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1238bbe16f269a30ecb73ed3321909a278ad41388f1aabe3322a3f927e6048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a9c…c8cfbacked Over | 5c | 26,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 1,802$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…53fabacked Over | 8c | 1,416$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 3c | 1,295$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 4cpaid | +842.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 1,028$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.7 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 75c | 979.47$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 801.39$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.21 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 642.08$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.93 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 562.29$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…7d17backed Over | 62c | 547.15$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 35c | 332.15$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.84 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 10c | 301.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.77 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 71c | 279.22$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 24c | 217.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.92 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…a56fbacked Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 75c | 131.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 35c | 122.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81b5…56cdbacked Over | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 75.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 70.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed Under | 16c | 62.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Under | 28c | 60.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +182%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 64c | 51.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 53c | 36.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 36c | 36.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 37c | 36.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…b7aebacked Over | 62c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 63c | 22.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…c538backed Over | 54c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4542…be1cbacked Over | 58c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.