Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad707f3e632677c39b0c792730c4b2f90269fbaa7b3f3b770f1dc7eaebec26c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 42c | 1,078$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.7 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 58c | 599.97$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 59c | 455.71$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 354.44$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 59c | 340$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 10c | 295$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 261.9$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 40c | 240.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 60c | 225.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 198.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 59c | 170.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 43c | 164.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 62c | 129.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Under | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 109.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Under | 29c | 98.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 40c | 97.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 88.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 79c | 33.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 59c | 32.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 59c | 29.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 59c | 29.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 59c | 27.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 59c | 17.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.