Other European Leagues · resolved market
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a288fefb8067ff562156f5709581b9f604b242e69fa6f9a4e31882a3d9eba48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 13,298$8,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,285.25 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 40c | 13,176$5,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,262.19 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 1,046$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.93 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 666.39$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.76 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 62c | 548.39$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 525.67$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.58 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 322.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Under | 62c | 235.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 46c | 211$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 39c | 208.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 40c | 149.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 39c | 128.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 40c | 123.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…d808backed Over | 41c | 114.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 26c | 111.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 38c | 103.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 61c | 79.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 32c | 78.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Under | 64c | 71.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 38c | 71.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Over | 23c | 68.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 42c | 62.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 61c | 59.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 55.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 34c | 54.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…52cdbacked Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 41c | 50.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…5c2ebacked Over | 38c | 49.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 59c | 45.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 72c | 42.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 45c | 40.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed Under | 72c | 31.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 38c | 28.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…811bbacked Under | 60c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 59c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Tondela: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Tondela: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Tondela: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.