Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3ade6952e60173b28e8756b758274e94f92831d65642b2b34920b1c8f594eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilibili Gamingof XLG Gaming, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Bilibili Gaming | 68c | 799.99$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed XLG Gaming | 32c | 558.82$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…3989backed Bilibili Gaming | 68c | 241$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…6edfbacked XLG Gaming | 29c | 236.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked Bilibili Gaming | 69c | 72.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed XLG Gaming | 32c | 47.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed XLG Gaming | 31c | 40.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 672 | 50.6%340 W · 332 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Bilibili Gaming | 67c | 30.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc292…5d50backed XLG Gaming | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 PlayoffsBilibili Gaming won
- Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.