Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4bc265dd7adf14281be9be9912302d1ff829d1b1dce2d396c7e7dd8a8efbf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e93…2f9dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 4,495$3,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.41 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 48c | 3,839$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.42 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 52c | 1,729$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.43 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 52c | 1,453$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.51 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…030ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,327$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Yes | 12c | 1,299$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.88 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 51c | 1,184$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.07 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 1,100$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes | 18c | 626.25$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 45c | 434.99$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 54c | 401.15$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.53 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 331.18$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…8c88backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…ae57backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 16cpaid | +280.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…0b75backed Yes | 31c | 231.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 225.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 207$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 77c | 207$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 48c | 193$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 152.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 41c | 149.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 52c | 148$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 132.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 121.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 19c | 111.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 31c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 52c | 92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 26c | 60.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…9192backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 77c | 43.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 42.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 78c | 38.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 28c | 35.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Yes | 50c | 22.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4564…f646backed Yes | 49c | 20.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?this page
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.