CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a6586e35279d8435c8db9c0f45a5ff251f8e3a81e7e9882ad8c3a6f1dd16d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UPGRADEof UPGRADE, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed UPGRADE | 50c | 1,314$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.1 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…872ebacked Black Phoenix | 50c | 1,194$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 114 | 71.1%81 W · 33 L | +18.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked UPGRADE | 69c | 388.83$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 5,183 | 37.1%1,924 W · 3,259 L | -274.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked Black Phoenix | 34c | 377$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 272 | 45.2%123 W · 149 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked UPGRADE | 73c | 315.78$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 4,879 | 43.4%2,116 W · 2,763 L | -93.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…aceebacked Black Phoenix | 25c | 306.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Black Phoenix | 50c | 269.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 5,194 | 55.2%2,869 W · 2,325 L | +131.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed UPGRADE | 48c | 200.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 693 | 48.2%334 W · 359 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…7691backed Black Phoenix | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…d86cbacked Black Phoenix | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…ed78backed Black Phoenix | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked UPGRADE | 74c | 124.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 3,706 | 29.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L | -297.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked UPGRADE | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 174 | 37.4%65 W · 109 L | -13.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed UPGRADE | 53c | 87.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 452 | 55.8%252 W · 200 L | +17.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed UPGRADE | 75c | 81.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1,704 | 47%801 W · 903 L | -29.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked UPGRADE | 48c | 80.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 274 | 42.7%117 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked UPGRADE | 72c | 74.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3,375 | 45.7%1,542 W · 1,833 L | -84.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Black Phoenix | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,502 | 43%1,077 W · 1,425 L | -73.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked UPGRADE | 67c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,293 | 43.3%994 W · 1,299 L | -70.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Black Phoenix | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked UPGRADE | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,279 | 54.3%694 W · 585 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed UPGRADE | 58c | 37.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 123 | 75.6%93 W · 30 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked UPGRADE | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2,241 | 47.6%1,067 W · 1,174 L | -59.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Black Phoenix | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 67.4%91 W · 44 L | +19.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…a296backed Black Phoenix | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed UPGRADE | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 718 | 42.3%304 W · 414 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageBlack Phoenix won
- Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 WinnerBlack Phoenix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.