Golf · resolved market

Will Austin Smotherman win the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a6b71abf87abd6b2d9775be2e9e0c54d1c844f9ed715a33ccd1f0cea0e15d2c

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,280 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5661…5921backed Yes	17c	8,967$1,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.91	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	30c	1,400$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.99	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	73c	1,049$769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.02	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…b217backed Yes	19c	1,028$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Yes	21c	622.01$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb97…9f9abacked Yes	14c	312.64$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked No	77c	297.7$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.66	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+78.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	14c	280.48$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No	71c	235.17$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.47	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0254…6200backed Yes	6c	232.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b15…f827backed Yes	19c	133.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f8…8d1bbacked Yes	24c	130$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes	19c	117.02$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	14c	108.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	70	31.4%22 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No	78c	79.96$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.78	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7862…0cdebacked Yes	20c	61.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6f…f19dbacked No	79c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	79cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Austin Smotherman win the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event