Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a711b24aafa0f953bc44a83d50f7cedb3ffc6a6506f359aa9178dfec6081e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Under | 47c | 8,513$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,517.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 6c | 1,783$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 57c | 1,500$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.2 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 849.06$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 765$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.02 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 33c | 746.46$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 463.5$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.66 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 442$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.16 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 403.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 398.48$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 53c | 361.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.45 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 316$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 311.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 45c | 308.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.49 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 36c | 279.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 209.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…b26ebacked Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 53c | 188.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 52c | 181$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 62c | 171.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 58c | 157.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 70c | 145.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 53c | 144.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Over | 53c | 144.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 53c | 144.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…446cbacked Over | 34c | 126.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 26c | 121.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 72c | 114.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 106.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 52c | 106.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 53c | 94.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 93.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…9086backed Over | 35c | 92.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 64c | 77.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 73.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 53c | 72.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 34c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 71c | 65.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Over | 22c | 63.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 62.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 72c | 55.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 57c | 52.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Under | 29c | 51.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 43c | 50.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 59c | 33.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…c2e4backed Over | 53c | 32.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 63c | 31.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 42c | 29.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…7689backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…3d9dbacked Over | 53c | 24.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…e390backed Over | 53c | 23.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd68…b69fbacked Over | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…04b5backed Over | 53c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349c…0958backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…f76cbacked Over | 53c | 21.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…878cbacked Over | 53c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29be…3e31backed Over | 53c | 20.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 79cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.