Mls · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a771beb4315d365a07170aeb4cdedf5f09a61b58e13a994309aee7ebb59b7da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Salt Lakeof St. Louis City SC, Real Salt Lake
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Real Salt Lake | 74c | 5,850$4,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed St. Louis City SC | 26c | 2,848$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.48 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis City SC | 16c | 1,541$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.57 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed St. Louis City SC | 26c | 1,311$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.94 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Real Salt Lake | 74c | 987.38$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.5 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Real Salt Lake | 73c | 367.5$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Salt Lake | 74c | 138.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Real Salt Lake | 76c | 130.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Real Salt Lake | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis City SC | 16c | 110.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis City SC | 26c | 106.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed St. Louis City SC | 25c | 104.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Real Salt Lake | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed St. Louis City SC | 25c | 63.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed St. Louis City SC | 27c | 55.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed St. Louis City SC | 27c | 48.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Salt Lake | 75c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked Real Salt Lake | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.