Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d6df7150d79d9b42f0427020fec50c985fde7c1372f8f9fb40a0748f03d27e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 5,749$3,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.17 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 39c | 4,097$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 52c | 2,042$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 23c | 1,748$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.76 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 1,572$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.37 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 58c | 1,415$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.32 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 6c | 964$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 47c | 947.97$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 61c | 816.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.6 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 7c | 785.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 17c | 604$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 41c | 515.08$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 37c | 504.86$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 443.34$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.54 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 51c | 426.06$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.51 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…dbd2backed Over | 48c | 262.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 41c | 206$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 76c | 203.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Under | 16c | 183.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 49c | 156.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 150.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 64c | 127$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 47c | 114$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 49c | 105.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 49c | 99.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…1942backed Under | 39c | 92.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 55c | 89.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 76c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 78c | 86.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 63c | 74.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 34c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 56c | 64.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 63c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 58c | 28.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 55c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 63c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 49c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 49c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.