Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b8ccb93cab3a6f8c8959d6b5c2b7543378ebff66ddd79a0db2b39d8ec5a75d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 22c | 6,056$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.37 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 71c | 4,814$3,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.97 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 22c | 4,251$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.88 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 43c | 3,505$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.92 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 2,608$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 22c | 1,569$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.21 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 1,082$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.11 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 38c | 981.1$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.43 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 66c | 504.7$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 354.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.94 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 34c | 335.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 64c | 298$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 38c | 288$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 36c | 264.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.43 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 40c | 240.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 22c | 217.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 59c | 194.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 79c | 165.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 64c | 156.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 64c | 129$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 37c | 128.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 77c | 114.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 108.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 78c | 108.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 78c | 98.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 45c | 88.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 31c | 76.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 55c | 73.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 76c | 72.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 69.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 78c | 64.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…1f5cbacked Under | 60c | 56.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 47c | 46.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 63c | 45.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 78c | 43.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 78c | 41.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 40.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 55c | 34.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 36c | 33.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 37c | 30.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 60c | 21.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.