Other European Leagues · resolved market
Fredrikstad FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a9359c1ba05aa885fa22cab69fb2048c195dfc015abb56c670e590544b9a86e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 51c | 1,183$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.2 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 894.19$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.44 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Over | 59c | 762.71$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 354.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 297.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 262.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 56c | 240.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 223.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 155.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 50c | 119.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 40c | 74.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 47c | 63.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 47c | 63.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 47c | 63.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 24c | 58.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 45c | 54.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 50c | 39.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 50c | 39.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 50c | 39.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Under | 55c | 38.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 38.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 47c | 38.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 46c | 36.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 40c | 35.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Over | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 47c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 133 | 60.2%80 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 28.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 27.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…7dedbacked Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fredrikstad FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5this page
- Fredrikstad FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fredrikstad FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fredrikstad FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fredrikstad FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.