Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Linda Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa47fe900c0ae411f66f1c24271c760607eb3f25d3deba7dba43d32dfd2bcc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Potapova, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Noskova | 68c | 1,687$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.45 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Potapova | 33c | 1,448$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.12 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Noskova | 67c | 718.4$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.54 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Potapova | 36c | 659.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Noskova | 65c | 659.55$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.55 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Potapova | 38c | 552.31$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.15 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Potapova | 34c | 396.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Potapova | 42c | 355.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Potapova | 38c | 347$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Potapova | 34c | 319.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Noskova | 62c | 305$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Potapova | 41c | 290.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…a7babacked Potapova | 38c | 284.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Noskova | 71c | 190.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Potapova | 37c | 189.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Noskova | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Potapova | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Potapova | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Noskova | 61c | 98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Potapova | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Noskova | 64c | 57.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Noskova | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Potapova | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Noskova | 67c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Noskova | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Noskova | 59c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.