Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aab785c344d64dddedae68b568ed6205d3b82e6c61f9119dd16df5b44bcd4d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 276.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 248.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 235.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 180.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 39c | 161$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 157.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 120.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 112.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 93.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 85.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 78.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 31c | 62.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 59.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 54.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 52.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 31c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 49.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 37c | 47.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 74c | 37.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed No | 79c | 35.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 32.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 63c | 32.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 34c | 32.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 64c | 31.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 71c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…5093backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.