Us Politics · resolved market
Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ad26038c8e95c6f98c6832ae13a81aac3ce10530add1066cfaecdf24f277610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $824,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,523,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $824,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 8c | 5,755$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.32 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…2446backed Yes | 2c | 4,881$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 10c | 4,435$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,958$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,938$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,458$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 2,100$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,008$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,700$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,682$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,223$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 9c | 1,222$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…7876backed Yes | 2c | 854.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 788.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 4c | 699.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 4c | 611$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 8c | 571.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 10c | 434.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb328…00debacked Yes | 6c | 344.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 5c | 313.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 270.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…3381backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 9c | 172$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cd…3869backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…8fa7backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…12c7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.