Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aff24860a296509eb220abf337b751e4ccc2736183d49eef9baa1ee4264c1b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 55c | 1,640$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.46 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…1fd7backed Yes | 3c | 1,583$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 50c | 1,134$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.28 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 40c | 750$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.5 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 36c | 704$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 69c | 625.32$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.44 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…e3b0backed Yes | 13c | 535.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 60c | 493.72$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.23 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 59c | 417.67$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.87 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb67d…ff92backed Yes | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked No | 63c | 178.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 112$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 43.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…d2c2backed Yes | 50c | 43.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 55c | 23.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of March?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of March?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of March?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of March?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $780 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.