Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b28cb6254807a1272edab6cc0ec3dd8104775c6aeca431daac785644a247775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,256 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 62c | 1,128$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.03 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 997.44$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.85 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 40c | 620$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 55c | 616.05$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.22 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 25c | 495.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 52c | 481$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.08 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 45c | 387.89$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…3960backed No | 55c | 327.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 46c | 249.03$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 53c | 133.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 46c | 98.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed No | 67c | 79.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 45c | 60.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 46.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 46c | 45.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 46c | 40.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…17f5backed No | 79c | 36.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3885…2138backed Yes | 47c | 34.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Yes | 32c | 33.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…898bbacked No | 54c | 32.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 52c | 30.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 21.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on March 9?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.