Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Jan-Lennard Struff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7693b16934a352254e395c3c6e78610a0b1936f961833d9ded891feb46c76c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navaof Nava, Struff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Struff | 22c | 5,548$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.33 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Struff | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Struff | 23c | 1,711$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.68 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Nava | 44c | 1,593$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.93 | 260 | 45.4%118 W · 142 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nava | 41c | 1,567$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.53 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Nava | 34c | 1,470$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.22 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Struff | 47c | 1,361$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.62 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Struff | 18c | 1,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Struff | 62c | 875.11$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.42 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Struff | 56c | 553$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.68 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Nava | 40c | 512.58$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.5 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Nava | 41c | 461.24$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.13 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Struff | 55c | 450.57$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Struff | 67c | 450$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Struff | 34c | 445.16$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…2e91backed Struff | 78c | 266.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Nava | 45c | 225$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Struff | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Struff | 9c | 195.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Struff | 13c | 192.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Struff | 30c | 191.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Nava | 43c | 190$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Struff | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Struff | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Struff | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Nava | 41c | 127.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Nava | 45c | 116.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Nava | 42c | 92.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nava | 35c | 71.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Struff | 77c | 70.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nava | 40c | 53.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Nava | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Nava | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nava | 28c | 40.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Struff | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 58.8%97 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Struff | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Struff | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…639ebacked Nava | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Struff | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…35b7backed Nava | 43c | 23.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Struff | 59c | 20.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…61c4backed Struff | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.