TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Miyazaki: Hayato Matsuoka vs Kasidit Samrej

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hayato Matsuokaof Hayato Matsuoka, Kasidit Samrej
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,643
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,643 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kasidit Samrej10c3,036$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.522,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Kasidit Samrej20c1,728$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.239,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Kasidit Samrej44c1,131$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.441,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Kasidit Samrej23c907.8$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5917933%59 W · 120 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kasidit Samrej40c872.95$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.657,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hayato Matsuoka80c819.89$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5f…6cecbacked Hayato Matsuoka63c728.46$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.4627749.8%138 W · 139 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hayato Matsuoka64c504.83$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.653,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x627f…06dcbacked Kasidit Samrej45c498.62$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.384744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25d…a320backed Hayato Matsuoka67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.761637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Hayato Matsuoka64c413.23$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.242,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Kasidit Samrej41c401.1$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.762,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa163…934dbacked Kasidit Samrej15c359.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430715.6%48 W · 259 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Hayato Matsuoka56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1465849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Kasidit Samrej35c353.04$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.011,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Hayato Matsuoka57c347.37$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.821,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hayato Matsuoka74c311.3$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.542,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Kasidit Samrej42c306.33$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4572542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Hayato Matsuoka56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84bd…34d0backed Kasidit Samrej17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010829.6%32 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Hayato Matsuoka55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.731,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Hayato Matsuoka64c232.83$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.281,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Kasidit Samrej44c229$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.971,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kasidit Samrej44c227.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.144,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Hayato Matsuoka65c208.82$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.581,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Kasidit Samrej44c193.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.655660.3%335 W · 221 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8261…a4e7backed Kasidit Samrej16c183.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Hayato Matsuoka58c183.52$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.522,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kasidit Samrej41c170.66$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.811,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Hayato Matsuoka77c155.84$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8450364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Hayato Matsuoka65c140$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.411,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Hayato Matsuoka58c140$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.840744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Hayato Matsuoka63c114.15$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.456,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Hayato Matsuoka43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5751539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Kasidit Samrej30c88.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.73,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Kasidit Samrej22c84.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3220836.5%76 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Kasidit Samrej41c66.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.431,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Kasidit Samrej35c54.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8940048.5%194 W · 206 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Hayato Matsuoka58c54.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.939263%58 W · 34 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Hayato Matsuoka60c45.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2456757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Kasidit Samrej44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.853457.7%308 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Hayato Matsuoka57c44.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.132,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe36…9413backed Hayato Matsuoka54c33.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5531358.5%183 W · 130 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91af…40bdbacked Hayato Matsuoka62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Hayato Matsuoka59c30.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.331,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Kasidit Samrej41c29.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.045658.9%33 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Hayato Matsuoka56c24.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.917,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Hayato Matsuoka57c23.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.017856.4%44 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Kasidit Samrej45c22.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1138754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x907d…2c9bbacked Hayato Matsuoka57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.617761%108 W · 69 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2098…0c0bbacked Hayato Matsuoka58c18.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.759062.2%56 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Hayato Matsuoka56c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9222258.1%129 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Hayato Matsuoka62c16.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4343752.2%228 W · 209 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c7…bb75backed Hayato Matsuoka73c15.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.155552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.