Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8f24c9170c78e50eb3c103b682dc65a80588a645aa251366cd62af82a4e94a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof MODUS, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 1,718$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.65 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 909.23$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.39 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a9…3bb6backed MODUS | 60c | 836.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed MODUS | 60c | 755.96$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 607.66$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.93 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MODUS | 56c | 547.38$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.08 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked MODUS | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 326.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.31 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed MODUS | 45c | 308.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked MODUS | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed MODUS | 68c | 261.32$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.04 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 33c | 227.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 191.12$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 65c | 160.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked MODUS | 19c | 143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe996…3836backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 114.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 21c | 93.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 90.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 79.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed MODUS | 55c | 73.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed MODUS | 70c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked MODUS | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked MODUS | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed MODUS | 46c | 43.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…078abacked MODUS | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked MODUS | 47c | 24.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 23.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed MODUS | 60c | 19.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group BMODUS won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.