Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x024a52254792e2fb3da35d1cb1e4a7ade69574832c02e54dcd59852b9a2fdfb3

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: MODUSof MODUS, Ilbirs eSports
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,195 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked MODUS	55c	2,464$1,349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,115.02	1,202	59.3%713 W · 489 L	+64.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Ilbirs eSports	56c	1,364$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.49	802	56%449 W · 353 L	+22.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1d…4c70backed MODUS	69c	1,140$782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.01	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked MODUS	43c	1,107$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$631.43	179	54.2%97 W · 82 L	-12.6wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Ilbirs eSports	46c	1,001$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.46	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Ilbirs eSports	44c	982.35$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.23	953	42.2%402 W · 551 L	-20.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Ilbirs eSports	55c	827.84$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455	109	49.5%54 W · 55 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked MODUS	60c	783.58$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.21	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab4…74b7backed Ilbirs eSports	11c	635.48$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.93	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed MODUS	43c	432.2$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.2	305	34.4%105 W · 200 L	-14.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports	50c	392.51$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.86	966	45.1%436 W · 530 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports	46c	349.98$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.49	700	52.3%366 W · 334 L	+47.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Ilbirs eSports	46c	300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	462	40.7%188 W · 274 L	+15.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Ilbirs eSports	66c	300$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	376	55.1%207 W · 169 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Ilbirs eSports	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	147	51.7%76 W · 71 L	+11.1wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed MODUS	38c	293.2$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.32	121	36.4%44 W · 77 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ilbirs eSports	39c	234.47$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.71	562	43.2%243 W · 319 L	+14.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Ilbirs eSports	78c	228.5$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.15	866	59.6%516 W · 350 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Ilbirs eSports	46c	213.51$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	321	48.3%155 W · 166 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MODUS	31c	196.36$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.75	1,702	41.2%701 W · 1,001 L	-44.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed MODUS	53c	182$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.76	198	57.1%113 W · 85 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed MODUS	60c	167.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.49	293	47.4%139 W · 154 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Ilbirs eSports	24c	164$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.73	350	32.3%113 W · 237 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Ilbirs eSports	41c	163.19$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.29	153	42.5%65 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked MODUS	61c	163.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.14	367	61%224 W · 143 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6182…10c8backed Ilbirs eSports	57c	157.89$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b9…0a9bbacked MODUS	60c	143.42$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.42	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked MODUS	33c	139.46$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.8	72	31.9%23 W · 49 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Ilbirs eSports	24c	133.22$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.27	155	36.1%56 W · 99 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Ilbirs eSports	56c	129.99$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.8	324	41.7%135 W · 189 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7c…c4c5backed Ilbirs eSports	56c	129.3$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.02	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Ilbirs eSports	40c	114$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	779	41.1%320 W · 459 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Ilbirs eSports	58c	109.6$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.09	614	56%344 W · 270 L	+13.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed MODUS	42c	103.33$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.33	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ada…c921backed Ilbirs eSports	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Ilbirs eSports	57c	96.19$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	461	50.8%234 W · 227 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports	54c	94.29$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.76	1,458	48.5%707 W · 751 L	+27.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42e…59e1backed MODUS	49c	92.28$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.28	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked MODUS	43c	91.19$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.06	531	39.5%210 W · 321 L	-37.2wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed MODUS	62c	90$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.32	99	56.6%56 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports	36c	88.06$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.08	670	43.3%290 W · 380 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Ilbirs eSports	23c	86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	213	33.3%71 W · 142 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked MODUS	59c	84.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.75	354	61.3%217 W · 137 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Ilbirs eSports	41c	84.75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+4.2wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e98…1047backed Ilbirs eSports	47c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Ilbirs eSports	67c	74.35$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	86	60.5%52 W · 34 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Ilbirs eSports	27c	73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Ilbirs eSports	27c	68$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	653	37.2%243 W · 410 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Ilbirs eSports	35c	60$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	412	44.7%184 W · 228 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	582	50.5%294 W · 288 L	+10.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed MODUS	60c	57.87$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.87	169	39.6%67 W · 102 L	-15.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS	36c	51.53$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.15	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Ilbirs eSports	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	546	48.5%265 W · 281 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked MODUS	33c	50.42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.78	107	28%30 W · 77 L	-8.2wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9e7…c067backed Ilbirs eSports	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d13…b939backed Ilbirs eSports	53c	46.73$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Ilbirs eSports	27c	45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	690	33.3%230 W · 460 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Ilbirs eSports	43c	41.92$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	273	57.1%156 W · 117 L	+9.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed MODUS	34c	39.91$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.34	1,034	16.3%169 W · 865 L	-158.1wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7cc3…aab9backed Ilbirs eSports	53c	37.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed MODUS	60c	36.4$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.56	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked MODUS	35c	36.26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	279	52.3%146 W · 133 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Ilbirs eSports	63c	30.48$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	302	55.3%167 W · 135 L	+10.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91aa…4679backed MODUS	60c	29.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	63cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda47…c2e9backed Ilbirs eSports	52c	28.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked Ilbirs eSports	58c	26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed MODUS	80c	25.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.07	316	44.9%142 W · 174 L	-18.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c71…7ccbbacked MODUS	51c	21.35$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Ilbirs eSports	70c	16.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	1,280	45%576 W · 704 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: MODUS vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event