MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb9a5d71e9b37189b0fcd3ade1aa738b7430f638313fedc3d7540b7c2510490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.99 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 2,597$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.05 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 594.32$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 307.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 283$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.53 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 224.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 209.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 140.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 37.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 33.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…ec4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.