Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bc188413e5cb5e37b4d3088cf55100fd3aa5415d030b36b66439d073a044241
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 369.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.32 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 333.6$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 78c | 305.46$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.78 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 166.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 6c | 160.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 58c | 151$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 44c | 133.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 119.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 27c | 102.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 101.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 101.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 64c | 93.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 57c | 84.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 80.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 38c | 79.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 63.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 54.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 52.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 57c | 43.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 57c | 42.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 34c | 36.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 32c | 36.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 32.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 43c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 27.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 25.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 25.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 24.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf88c…f906backed No | 79c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.