Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6499e8b1c6bdcc6adc2ca75c71c262a0ad9aa04eb91d8306ef442008f10e55e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 408.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 399.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 315.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 240.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 23c | 167.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 147.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 12c | 147.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 104.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 104.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 13c | 98.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 90.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 79.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 49.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 43c | 35.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd551…d570backed Yes | 56c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 27.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 60c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.