Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bc62df73776fce7c8b2f72a608c3f38ec2df89ebb1a4b12e59d76301454c28e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,844 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 768.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 80c | 351$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 80c | 304.06$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…732fbacked Under | 77c | 264$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd366…ffc3backed Over | 23c | 264$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 25c | 263.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 17c | 242.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 17c | 214.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 18c | 207.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…c444backed Under | 77c | 184.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…a50ebacked Over | 23c | 184.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 21c | 172.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 79c | 165$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…23c3backed Over | 23c | 159.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…5dedbacked Under | 77c | 159.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 15c | 133.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 19c | 121.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 19c | 105.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 102.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Over | 21c | 85.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 19c | 75.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 22c | 69.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 80c | 43.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 77c | 28.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 76c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.