Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ee4773c2328412933daf1798bad114f80e33c8d2f2d6e6ead73f6892a7e13ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,839 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d30…a42dbacked Over | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 71c | 2,062$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.37 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 1,977$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.5 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…241fbacked Under | 28c | 1,904$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…e6c2backed Over | 63c | 1,505$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 1,450$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.3 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 60c | 1,409$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 38c | 1,352$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.87 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 26c | 1,153$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 65c | 1,040$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 999.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.67 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 59c | 499.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 61c | 481.66$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.85 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Under | 16c | 447.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 426.71$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 330.08$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.27 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked Under | 43c | 318.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 39c | 240.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 39c | 195.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 11c | 190.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 186$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 23c | 153.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 136$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 37c | 134.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 47c | 127.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 41c | 124.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Under | 40c | 116.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 38c | 113.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 40c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 73c | 104.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 60c | 100.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 41c | 100.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Under | 66c | 98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 18c | 97.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 35c | 76.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 77c | 73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 72.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 70c | 71.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 69c | 61.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 61c | 55.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 75c | 47.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 40c | 45.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 39c | 45.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Under | 42c | 39.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 61c | 32.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 42c | 31.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 35c | 30.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Under | 43c | 28.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…e4f4backed Over | 61c | 23.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.