Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd20ff4ebc537a2fb1014e9c1990786f5cf8a504c843de3fe81c2d517fd0974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 1,427$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 576.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 30c | 288.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 6c | 242.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 22c | 232.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 188.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 77c | 158.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 157.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 134.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 119.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 114.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 28c | 108.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 71c | 84.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 67.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 56.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 48.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 29c | 48.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 33c | 46.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…4b28backed Yes | 33c | 44.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 36.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 70c | 34.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 31c | 33.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 70c | 29.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 73c | 26.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 70c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…da7cbacked No | 70c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.