Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e66798965f006cb03fd32124f86a7a73b44d05eae62cf17ac32aeb41558a2ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x046c…d326backed No | 4c | 512.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 484.85$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 483.13$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 10c | 473.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 371$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes | 11c | 317.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.86 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 261.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…26e1backed Yes | 5c | 197.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +668%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaa…2b29backed Yes | 11c | 194.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Yes | 78c | 175.38$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 155.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 145.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 72c | 134.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 127.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 19c | 97.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec60…8ad8backed Yes | 22c | 94.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 79.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 78.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 54c | 64.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 21c | 59.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 55.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 52.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked Yes | 28c | 41.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 38c | 34.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…fa96backed Yes | 75c | 31.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…5fc8backed No | 55c | 31.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 59c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 57c | 18.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 77c | 13.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.