TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 2 above $141?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,590 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb40e…7cc9backed No5c1,982$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.088943.8%39 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No22c1,172$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.813716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No43c991.19$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.9148234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes58c453.29$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.381,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No73c442.04$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.7335151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c407.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.744168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No40c343.38$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2319934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13299038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ff…c537backed Yes43c228.28$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+97.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c103$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4486338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes52c103$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.446870.6%48 W · 20 L+12.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6644…af9fbacked Yes41c68.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7473…948dbacked No31c60.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c58.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.031,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fe4…13c7backed Yes43c55.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes65c27.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.461163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed No73c22.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.17771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.