Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2becf6ba0d081ea052b3f89c44eebbc8dad22e86657371e340a828db06641800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 68c | 648.05$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.76 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 258.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 32c | 178.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 19c | 141.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…fee5backed No | 23c | 140.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 132.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 132.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 17c | 108.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 12c | 107.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 101$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 58c | 100.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 29c | 99.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 18c | 88.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 25c | 82.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 79c | 73.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 69.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 65.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 65.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 26c | 58.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 55.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 55.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 62c | 36.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 51c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 74c | 30.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 68c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 73c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 52c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 23.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 68c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 61c | 22.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…b728backed Yes | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 17.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.