Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Mao Mushika vs Kanon Sawashiro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf260a2c68d8472a4f973e69d7bdf83b89999e757c2e754216666ecc2062d3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mao Mushikaof Mao Mushika, Kanon Sawashiro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Mao Mushika | 47c | 1,886$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.16 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Kanon Sawashiro | 41c | 1,576$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.3 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mao Mushika | 66c | 895.67$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.34 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Kanon Sawashiro | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…61f1backed Kanon Sawashiro | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kanon Sawashiro | 57c | 480$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.49 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Kanon Sawashiro | 35c | 340.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Mao Mushika | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mao Mushika | 72c | 154$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mao Mushika | 40c | 138.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Kanon Sawashiro | 50c | 118.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Kanon Sawashiro | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Kanon Sawashiro | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mao Mushika | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Kanon Sawashiro | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mao Mushika | 32c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Kanon Sawashiro | 68c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Kanon Sawashiro | 44c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Mao Mushika | 59c | 17.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Kanon Sawashiro | 72c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…7141backed Mao Mushika | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.