Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Tirante
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bff22f2c998c93c08970b709e5818cccac4ae750e0b7c76489bffe66f64efb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Norrie, Tirante
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Tirante | 24c | 760.77$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.73 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -13.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Tirante | 58c | 353.88$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.23 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…d5d0backed Norrie | 66c | 248.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 247 | 62.3%154 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Tirante | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Tirante | 48c | 210.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 208 | 44.2%92 W · 116 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Norrie | 56c | 209.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Norrie | 52c | 204.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Norrie | 55c | 195.14$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…387fbacked Norrie | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Norrie | 64c | 122.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Tirante | 43c | 111.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Norrie | 56c | 95.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tirante | 45c | 75.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tirante | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Tirante | 47c | 55.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d9…3624backed Tirante | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Norrie | 60c | 35.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Tirante | 40c | 32.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…2dffbacked Norrie | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tirante | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Norrie | 60c | 29.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Norrie | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Tirante | 46c | 24.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Norrie | 65c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…e98cbacked Norrie | 70c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 164 | 59.1%97 W · 67 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Tirantethis page
- Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Thiago Agustin TiranteCameron Norrie won
- Norrie vs. Tirante: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5)Norrie won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.