Mls · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c07fa52202e7683c1fa068f1ab82be10a77943e897c2f55598f020141cb7fed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Red Bullsof Chicago Fire FC, New York Red Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed New York Red Bulls | 69c | 1,012$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.85 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked New York Red Bulls | 60c | 993.95$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed New York Red Bulls | 58c | 452.59$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…14a3backed Chicago Fire FC | 31c | 446.47$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Fire FC | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Chicago Fire FC | 36c | 300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed New York Red Bulls | 59c | 208.72$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Chicago Fire FC | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 185.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Chicago Fire FC | 10c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Red Bulls | 60c | 86.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed New York Red Bulls | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed New York Red Bulls | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 46.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Red Bulls | 59c | 46.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 43.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked New York Red Bulls | 74c | 43.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed New York Red Bulls | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…4145backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked New York Red Bulls | 58c | 31.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Chicago Fire FC | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 25.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.