Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x568584d7b356f1835809507196287721e02ab00e72e8263837bbc1c8547174d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 3,853$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.29 | 996 | 45.4%452 W · 544 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 51c | 3,080$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.28 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…b58fbacked Under | 50c | 1,622$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Under | 50c | 1,396$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 49c | 965.77$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.12 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 34c | 733.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +132%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 23c | 699.35$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 643.17$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.33 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 50c | 544.78$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.97 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 41c | 489.27$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.67 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Under | 49c | 414.77$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -78%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 42c | 384.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.35 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 53c | 279.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 260$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 1,271 | 45.4%577 W · 694 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 259.86$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 245.61$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 1,306 | 51.2%669 W · 637 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 42c | 235.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 226.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 1,278 | 47.9%612 W · 666 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 51c | 194$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 54c | 163$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 150.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 43c | 120.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 117.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 50c | 101.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 393 | 34.6%136 W · 257 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 35c | 91.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 49c | 82.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 80.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 682 | 50.7%346 W · 336 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 49c | 76.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…8e5cbacked Under | 49c | 73.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 73c | 72.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 47c | 68.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 68.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 65.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 59c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 55c | 54.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 53.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 41c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 41c | 50.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 41c | 50.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 41c | 49.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 41c | 39.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 51c | 38.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 38.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 873 | 54.6%477 W · 396 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 52c | 38.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…8fb0backed Under | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 45c | 30.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…7a07backed Under | 79c | 24.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Under | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 50c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 62c | 16.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.