Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd856f9058d4566aba1507c9a2814a2b04d063b22c75eb6c501c259717fde4ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 35c | 1,766$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.56 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 685.88$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Over | 49c | 543.68$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 355$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 76c | 270.8$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 32c | 259.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 24c | 253$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Over | 67c | 234.86$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 62c | 223.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 25c | 200.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 68c | 112$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 75c | 97.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 28c | 87.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 78c | 68.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 27c | 68.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Over | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 75c | 50.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 68c | 28.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…e592backed Over | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 68c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.