Tennis · resolved market
Mexican Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Elias Ymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1a80ebbd485a4a68ccf3ad0dff1ddc1d0b9af8a0789568f946a13351cd6ab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Ymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ymer | 7c | 3,953$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.86 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ymer | 10c | 3,180$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.91 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Ymer | 9c | 1,502$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Ymer | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 305 | 42.6%130 W · 175 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Ymer | 11c | 1,364$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Ymer | 5c | 1,227$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ymer | 8c | 853.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ymer | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Ymer | 16c | 581.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Ymer | 16c | 541$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Ymer | 2c | 520.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Ymer | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ymer | 15c | 470.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Ymer | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Ymer | 16c | 349.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Ymer | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ymer | 10c | 318.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Ymer | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ymer | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Ymer | 15c | 246.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Ymer | 15c | 243$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ymer | 10c | 179.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Ymer | 13c | 146.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Ymer | 15c | 146$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Ymer | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Ymer | 12c | 88.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…9e59backed Ymer | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Ymer | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Ymer | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Ymer | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.